A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
